In a striking revelation about Bitcoin’s ongoing security challenges, Bitcoin Core maintainer and mining pool co-founder Luke Dashjr has calculated that Bitcoin transactions may require over 800 confirmations—approximately 5.5 days—to achieve a 95% probability of finality.
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This sharply contrasts with the widely accepted standard of six block confirmations (roughly one hour), which is commonly cited as sufficient to consider a transaction irreversible. Dashjr’s recalculation stems from a deep-seated distrust in Bitmain, a dominant force in Bitcoin mining, raising fresh concerns over the network’s resilience and decentralization.
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As Bitcoin adoption grows, this revelation could reignite debates about transaction security, mining centralization, and network trust assumptions—critical factors for users and institutions relying on the world’s leading cryptocurrency.
Bitmain’s Grip on Bitcoin Mining: How the Industry Giant Shapes the Network
Bitmain’s dominance in Bitcoin mining has long been an open secret, with the company exerting significant influence over the sector for years.
As the world’s leading manufacturer of mining hardware—including its widely used Antminer series—Bitmain holds a near-monopoly on the physical machines that power Bitcoin’s proof-of-work consensus. Beyond hardware, the company also operates major corporate mining pools like Antpool, further solidifying its control over the ecosystem.
Perhaps most crucially, Bitmain has historically incentivized miners—even those working for third-party pools like Poolin and BTC.com—through its highly profitable block templates, which dictate how Bitcoin transactions are processed.
According to Bitcoin Core maintainer Luke Dashjr, this sprawling influence allows the Bitmain-Antpool conglomerate to control roughly 48% of Bitcoin’s total hashrate—a figure that raises concerns over network decentralization and potential security risks.
As Bitcoin continues to mature, Bitmain’s outsized role in shaping its mining landscape remains a point of contention, fueling ongoing debates about centralization, trust, and the future of Bitcoin’s security model.
Bitcoin Transaction Finality: Why 800 Confirmations May Be Necessary
Bitcoin Core maintainer Luke Dashjr has raised concerns over transaction finality, arguing that many supposedly independent mining pools simply follow Bitmain’s templated block recommendations. As a result, Dashjr believes the standard six-block confirmation rule is inadequate, suggesting that an average Bitcoin transaction may require over 800 confirmations—approximately 5.5 days—to be considered irreversible.
Calculate Your Own Level of Distrust in Bitmain/Antpool
Dashjr arrived at his 800-block estimate by inputting his assumption—that Bitmain and its Antpool subsidiary control 48% of Bitcoin’s hashrate—into Gregory Maxwell’s archived “Attack Success” calculator. This tool models the likelihood of a miner or group of miners reorganizing the blockchain to reverse transactions.
For those who disagree with Dashjr’s assessment of Bitmain’s influence, the same calculator allows users to input their own assumptions about Bitmain’s hashrate control and determine an alternate estimate for transaction finality.
Bitcoin’s Settlement Security: A Matter of Trust
In Bitcoin’s decentralized network, node operators and users must assess their own level of trust in the mining ecosystem. The more block confirmations a transaction receives, the lower the risk of double-spending or blockchain reorganization. Conversely, fewer confirmations mean a transaction remains vulnerable to potential network manipulation.
According to Dashjr, a cautious user should wait nearly six days (800 blocks) to achieve 95% confidence that their Bitcoin transaction is truly final and beyond Bitmain’s potential control. However, the actual level of risk varies based on one’s beliefs about Bitmain’s dominance—a debate that continues to shape discussions around Bitcoin’s decentralization and security.
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